Home Win, Draw, Away Win (1X2)

How the probabilities are calculated

We estimate three probabilities for each fixture: Home Win, Draw and Away Win. The approach starts by building expected goals for both teams, then converting that expectation into win/draw/win probabilities.

• Home expected goals (λH) combines the home team attack indicators (season xG and recent scoring form) with the away team defensive indicators (recent goals conceded, shots conceded and xGA where available).
• Away expected goals (λA) combines the away team attack indicators with the home team defensive indicators in the same way.
• Game-state adjustment adds a small multiplier when both teams have high BTTS rate or high tempo signals, reflecting a more open match.
• Scoreline probabilities are computed from λH and λA using a goal distribution model (Poisson-based). From the scoreline matrix we derive: Home Win = P(H > A), Draw = P(H = A), Away Win = P(A > H).
• Ranking is done separately for each outcome by sorting fixtures by the corresponding probability, then comparing against bookmaker odds for value checks.

Output: three probabilities per fixture (Home/Draw/Away) with odds next to them. Fixtures with missing core inputs are flagged and pushed lower to reduce false confidence.